As tensions rise between Canada and the United States over trade, a surprising winner is emerging — Canada’s tourism industry. A new report from the Conference Board of Canada suggests that ongoing trade frictions and a growing Canadian boycott of the U.S. could result in a net $8.8 billion windfall for domestic tourism.
Canadians rethinking travel to the U.S.
In 2023, Canadians spent $26.6 billion on travel to the United States — nearly double the $12.9 billion that American tourists spent in Canada. But in recent months, that balance has begun to shift.
With the Canadian dollar hovering around $0.72 USD, travel to the U.S. has become more expensive. Add in ongoing delays at the border and growing nationalist sentiment spurred by the 2025 U.S.–Canada trade war, and it’s no surprise that Canadians are rethinking where they spend their vacation dollars.
A recent survey found that the number of Canadians planning an overnight trip to the U.S. dropped from 53% in November 2024 to just 27% in April 2025. Actual travel statistics reflect this change: border crossings to the U.S. by land and air fell by nearly 19% year over year in April.
A redirection of billions in travel spending
According to the Conference Board’s estimates, as much as $15.4 billion in Canadian travel spending could be redirected away from the U.S. While some of that is expected to be spent in other countries or diverted to non-travel purchases, an estimated $10.3 billion is likely to stay within Canada’s borders.
Even accounting for a projected $1.5 billion decline in U.S. tourist spending in Canada, the net gain for the Canadian tourism sector would still be an impressive $8.8 billion.
What’s driving the shift?
Several factors are contributing to this sea change in travel behaviour:
- Economic uncertainty and inflation are causing Canadians to spend more cautiously.
- New tariffs and travel friction tied to the U.S.–Canada trade conflict are encouraging more people to vacation at home.
- A growing “Visit Canada, Buy Canadian” movement is fueling a nationwide shift in spending habits.
- Media coverage and public figures have amplified calls for Canadians to avoid cross-border travel and instead support local businesses.
A unique opportunity for Canada’s tourism sector
While reduced American visitation is a concern (U.S. arrivals to Canada dropped 10.7% by land and 5.5% by air in April 2025), the domestic tourism boost more than compensates for the loss.
In an unexpected twist, international trade disputes are turning into a potential tourism dividend for Canada.
Regions like Vancouver Island, already a top destination for nature lovers and coastal escapes, are especially well-positioned to benefit. With its mix of natural beauty, local food, vibrant communities, and accessible travel options, the Island could capture a significant share of redirected Canadian travel spending.
This isn’t just a story about trade or economics — it’s a chance for Canadians to rediscover the richness of their own country, and for local destinations to shine on a national stage.
